After a record start to the year, investors clearly scaled back their purchases of physical gold. In Q2 2026, global demand for bars and coins fell to 307.1 tonnes, down 3% year-on-year. In Europe, retail demand hit its lowest level since Q3 2024. At the same time, Mennica Skarbowa is seeing a new trend on the Polish market: every third gold-purchase transaction is now made in cash. What’s more, the vast majority of gold buy-back transactions are also carried out in cash. Since the start of the year, Mennica Skarbowa has sold 1.5 tonnes of gold, and in Q2 alone the company recorded sales of PLN 323 million.
Gold doesn’t need to rise sharply
The second quarter of 2026 brought a clear cooling of the physical gold market. According to World Gold Council data, total demand for physical investment gold amounted to 307.1 tonnes, a 3% year-on-year decline. This was also the lowest reading since Q3 2024. The data signal a return to more typical purchase levels after two exceptionally strong quarters — Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Despite the sharp quarter-on-quarter decline, the first half of the year remains very strong. Demand for gold bars and coins over the whole first half totalled 784 tonnes, one of the strongest first-half results on record. Q2 alone saw volume fall 36% quarter-on-quarter, though the result was close to the long-term trend. Average quarterly purchases of bars and coins over the five-year period from Q4 2020 to Q3 2025 stood at 305 tonnes.
At the same time, Mennica Skarbowa does not expect significant further increases in the price of gold. In the company’s assessment, the market has entered a normalisation phase after an exceptionally strong start to the year. A level of USD 5,000 per ounce remains a realistic scenario over the next 12 months, but reaching it should not mean another sharp price rally.
„After the record gold-price gains at the start of the year, it looks like the market has entered a normalisation phase. Investors are more selective today and react to every price move. That’s why in the coming months we expect stabilisation rather than another sharp upward wave. Organic, gradual growth in valuation is the natural characteristic of the gold market. The spikes seen in January and February 2026 were an anomaly, which is why investors should hold back from rash moves during such periods. The USD 5,000-per-ounce level could be reached within the next 12 months, but the road to it may be considerably calmer than the results from the start of the year suggested. It’s worth noting, however, that despite weaker global demand for gold, we managed to generate results comparable to those of a year ago. Since January we have already sold 1.5 tonnes of gold” — says Adam Stroniawski, Member of the Management Board of Mennica Skarbowa.
High gold prices meant, however, that the drop in volume did not translate into a decline in the value of investments. In Q2, the value of bars and coins purchased reached USD 44.5 billion, versus USD 33.3 billion in Q2 2025. The average gold price according to the LBMA PM stood at USD 4,506.29 per ounce in Q2 — 8% below the Q1 record, but 37% higher than the average price in the same period a year earlier. The market was driven above all by expectations around US monetary policy. Stronger economic data fuelled speculation about upcoming Fed interest-rate hikes, which weighed on gold as a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the dollar strengthened to multi-year highs, raising the cost of dollar-denominated metals for foreign buyers. Major financial institutions also revised their short-term price forecasts downward in response to the shift in monetary policy.
The decline in volume was visible across all markets, though the scale and nature of the changes varied. In the US, demand for gold bars and coins came to 14 tonnes — higher year-on-year, but significantly lower than in Q1. Investors were disappointed by the lack of further upside potential for gold prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Prices largely stayed within a defined range, which limited activity, interrupted only by brief periods of “bargain hunting.” Compared with Q1, resale activity was also more limited. The drop in demand was even more pronounced in Europe. Retail investment weakened sharply, as the price correction in gold encouraged investors to take a more cautious approach. Net demand across the region fell to its lowest level since Q3 2024. Elevated levels of resale continued to limit demand for newly manufactured products.
Cash makes a comeback
Against this backdrop, Mennica Skarbowa is observing a new, clear trend on the Polish market. Every third gold-purchase transaction is now carried out in cash. In the company’s view, this may be linked to customers preparing for new EU anti-money-laundering regulations. From next year, for cash transactions worth at least EUR 3,000, the seller will be required to confirm the customer’s identity and carry out the appropriate verification procedure. At the same time, Article 80 of the new regulation sets a cash-payment limit of EUR 10,000 — cash payments above this amount will no longer be possible.
„Every third gold-purchase transaction with us today is carried out in cash. That’s a clear shift in customer behaviour. Importantly, we’re seeing a similar tendency on the buy-back side too. We wouldn’t claim this is solely the effect of future regulation, but it’s hard not to notice the connection. Customers may already be factoring into their decisions the rules that will apply from next year. Next year it will simply be harder to buy gold with cash.” — says Adam Stroniawski, Member of the Management Board of Mennica Skarbowa.
Mennica Skarbowa: strong results despite market volatility
Mennica Skarbowa’s results show the scale of Poles’ interest in precious metals. In the second quarter of 2026, the Company generated PLN 323 million in revenue, up 5.4% on Q2 2025. Q2 2026 closed with a gross profit on sales of PLN 2.9 million, compared with PLN 2.4 million in the corresponding period of 2025. Gross margin on sales in Q2 2026 stood at 3.69%. Operating profit in Q2 2026 came to PLN 2.5 million, versus PLN 2 million in the corresponding period of 2025. Financial costs in Q2 2026 amounted to PLN 1 million, mainly reflecting foreign-exchange differences and interest on loans used by the Company to finance its current trading operations. The Company’s Management Board notes that the Company continuously hedges its currency exposure as well as the gold price, and does not engage in speculation in gold or currency prices. These effects are typical economic conditions for the business, in which the vast majority of purchases are made in euro.
Gross profit for Q2 2026 stood at PLN 1.6 million, and net profit at PLN 0.6 million.
The Company holds a safe level of current assets, guaranteeing its ability to smoothly meet customer needs. The Company’s inventory at the end of Q2 2026 stood at PLN 96.9 million, up 13.6% on the corresponding period of the previous year, reflecting the Company’s adjustment of inventory levels to current demand in the investment gold market. The Company maintains an adequate level of stock available “off the shelf,” representing a significant competitive advantage on the Polish market.
Short-term financial assets, including cash, stood at PLN 14.4 million at the end of Q2, compared with PLN 17.8 million at the end of the corresponding period of the previous year. The Issuer’s short-term liabilities amounted to PLN 109.5 million, up 23.5% on the end of the corresponding period of the previous year, when short-term liabilities stood at PLN 88.6 million, reflecting an increase in trade payables.
It is worth noting that the surplus of current assets over current liabilities has a favourable effect on the Issuer’s financial security, demonstrating the Company’s stable financial position and supporting strategic planning for the development of its operations in future reporting periods.
Mennica Skarbowa is Poland’s largest distributor of investment gold and other precious metals. The Company is listed on NewConnect — the alternative market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Its core business is the sale and purchase of investment gold (bars and bullion coins), as well as other precious metals, diamonds, and collectible products. Mennica Skarbowa’s products are available at 16 branches: in Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Częstochowa, Gdańsk, Kalisz, Katowice, Kielce, Kraków, Lublin, Łódź, Poznań, Rzeszów, Szczecin, Warsaw, Wrocław, and Zielona Góra, as well as via the website: mennicaskarbowa.pl. The Company also provides secure storage services.
